19 May 2025

Here is this week’s update from Dr. Matt:

Geo-Politics:

Last week, Trump made a 90-day tariff truce with China. This week, we set up major contracts in the Middle East by stopping sanctions against Syria and Qatar. The sanctions were for human rights violations. I’m sure they are way nicer now. Qatar alone was for $2 trillion, with a lot of military support and Boeing airplanes being included to them. This may be a deterrent to keep these countries from joining BRICS. Trump’s trip to the middle east (and a surprise visit with Putin) triggered markets to climb and metals to fall. It looks like Trump is trying to find alternate sources of commerce than China. Syria and Qatar look to be all in, based on Trump killing sanctions against these two countries infamous for human rights violations (the cause of the sanctions).

The Stock/Bond Market Watch:

The Chinese central bank loan rate dropped 61%, signally a brutal drop in economic growth. Getting accurate information from the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) is rather hard, so the accuracy on the data is questionable, but in this case, it is somewhat substantiated by the International Monetary Fund. China’s GDP has been very close to ‘flatlining’ (NOT growing) since 2021. Based on the last couple decades, this is a rough trend. Stocks have roller-coastered in the last week due to the news at that moment. My sources do NOT agree what the outcome will be, with the exception of the industrial demand of silver will drive up that metal’s price.

Metals/Crypto Market Watch:

Gold and silver dropped pretty hard after the Trump/China tariff deal. But silver seems to be catching up to gold (falling slower), with the Gold to Silver Ratio under 99 (to 1). Once of my most trusted sources says metals holders will have the last laugh, and it could be by the end of the year. Coinbase, a crypto brokerage/exchange company, has been put on the S&P 500 – Whodathunk that. Digibyte and XRP are still poised to looks good in the next decade DGB is substantially safer than bitcoin (to get mined away from you) And XRP is secretly becoming a hedge-fund favorite, because the mothership OWNS the tech to use as a CBDC… Yes, I said that… it WILL happen someday, so I chose to profit from it now. All money I spent on XRP is considered as ‘Vegas’ money that I have mentally written off. It is scores in a decade, WE WIN.

Other News:

The CPI was much lower than expectations, debunking those that were predicting Trump-driven tariffs to drive prices way up. Imagine that… sanity prevailing. 2.3% annual, lowest since 2021. Most think that some goods deflated (eggs included) and some inflated, with the net result being a mild increase. But it seems that the reduction in housing sale prices may be at the root of this. Credit card delinquency and total credit card debt have not hit all-time highs. This is an excellent indicator of our national economic situation. If you’ve ever thought that those that control the economy didn’t want to enslave the populus via debt, then you are mistaken. You see, they own banks… banks make money by charging interest… the more debt they ‘sell’ the more money they make. Likewise, student loan delinquencies are also at an all-time high (not including COVID+ era). Trump stopped the Biden aid (forgiveness or deferment) This DEEPLY affects a million Americans But it is expected that this will hit the all-time in the next 6 weeks. This will impact credit scores, and you can’t get rid of these using bankruptcy.

It looks like the FED is poising itself to look like our (forthcoming) economic saviors. But there is little confidence that they will pull this off… in the meantime, their efforts will try to make Trump look like he doesn’t know what he is doing. They are relentlessly sending out warnings, but NOT taking any corrective action themselves. Many consider this to be scare tactics that WILL be used against Trump later.

Related to this, Moddy’s (Corporate debt analysis rating company) has DOWNGRADED the USA debt from AAA to AA1… this breaks a streak of confidence since 1917, when Moody’s began. They cited that the DEBT made up 98% of our GDP… but was on track for 134% in the next 10 years. In other words, we are THAT CLOSE to economic collapse. This makes bonds riskier to own. For the most part, there is only one way to get out of this… to have a major reset somehow (currency drop, flip to a CBDC, revalue gold, or other extreme action). This is NOT that shocking… the other two major credit rating services, Fitch and S&P Global, did so in 2023 and 2011, respectively. Oh, this is a ‘lagging indicator’ and looks back 4 years.

Florida and Texas are experiencing a rough time in real estate markets. Too many properties and not enough buyers, driving inventories up and prices down. It is expected to spread into more states (the level of severity). Only a few cities/states are exempt so far, like Tulsa. Investors are holding cash to get the lowest prices. (Also buying silver (while prices are in a temporary lull) and certain cryptos.)

The Usual Metrics (Layoff Tracker, Bank Health, Debt Clock, Inversion Chart, & CBDC’s gone LIVE):

Warren Buffet was blunt in offering a VERY negative outlook – calling it a crisis; and just coming short of stating that a collapse is coming. No new WA layoffs recorded in warntracker.com. There are still 8 banks in trouble in WA. One retired banker said, “Since I know what really goes on, I NEVER use a safe-deposit box.” The Debt Clock is almost to $37 trillion. I cannot go much further without a collapse. The Inversion chart is sneaking back up to 0.50% (holding at 0.49% The higher this goes, the harsher the recession. New home building permits fell to a rate near the ‘bottom’ of the COVID area. With markets all over the place, new unemployment claims are holding. Even though we are about 2 months away from the next GDP announcement, the Atlanta FED is guessing that we will go positive (effectively stopping a recession for now). I’ll keep you posted as we get closer.

What Would I Do About All This?

(This is NOT financial advice, but it is what we did in our house…)

There is no better time than now to try to get out of debt.
Visit www.daveramsey.com for a plan. Here is my hybrid plan (Dave Ramsey and Robert Kiyosaki):

• Reset your 401k to recession resistant investments
• DO NOT cash out your 401k to get out of debt.
• Convert to a ROTH if the market crashes.
• Consider selling all other investments to pay off debt (exclude rental homes).
• Stop wasting money on food, drinks, subscriptions.
• Sell everything with payments except your home.
• Save up $2,000 in emergency cash.
• Have a garage sale or use Marketplace.
• Pay off debt by interest rate or balance priority.
• Save 6 months of expenses in cash after debt.
• Only then, start investing wisely (metal, real estate).

We converted our 401k into a self-directed IRA that owns real estate AND metal. Metal is held here (by law):
OneGold IRA

If you want crypto, know it’s a gamble. We “Vegas’d” a few dollars just to try it out. Only a couple rare cryptos are backed by gold. All others are fiat. If you want backed ones, you might as well buy physical metal. Share this plan with someone drowning in debt—it may help them.