Geo-Politics

Tariffs started a couple days ago.

Metals ran up right before the 1st of February start.

Many are citing anonymous sources saying that Canada and Mexico are looking for ways to appease Trump to stop the tariffs.

Trump wants them to trim the crossings of illegals (mostly Mexico) AND to stop the smuggling of Fentanyl (both).

Gold is still running, but I bet it will come down some… (literally as I type and send this) Mexico announced 10,000 troops being deployed to the border put a hold on tariffs Until March 1. Canada has a meeting later this afternoon.

Trade policies are all over the place. Having just spent a couple days in Canada, the news is FULL of ‘tariff panic’.

While the tariffs are seemingly good for the USA, it will take some time to reset the inflation impact (offset by new jobs and higher manufacturing) on our economy.

Tariffs are typically very bad for all countries that are charged the fees, now at 25%.

I still find it surprising as to how many countries are willing to accept tariffs… all they have to do is take steps to secure their borders (from the crossings of people and/or drugs).

Metals were mildly up and down, but now they are nuts.

Plus, this is accentuated by the uncertainty in the FED’s actions to lower rates (or not).

Banks seem to not know whether to charge more or less for loans.

Real Estate markets are dropping like rocks.

China dropped a bomb on the AI world, introducing DeepSeek’s R1, A.I. announcement.

This superfast, yet simple A.I. (NOT requiring super chips) is not only shaking up the A.I. markets (by coming to the market with a LOW COST but MORE powerful A.I.) but also predicted a market CRASH for the competing tech companies.

Some are predicting this could be like the infamous ‘dot com’ bubble burst years ago.

It might fit the predicted market correction timing – both could happen at the same time.

I appreciated one analysis, referring to A.I. as a great way to sell expensive computer chips… but DeepSeek throws a wrench into that.

How bad is this? NVIDIA initially lost $600 BILLION in a single day (but crept back up after that).

China said they built this A.I. for only $6 million, while all other companies (ChatGPT, OpenAI, and others) have spent BILLIONS to develop.

The Stock Market/Crypto Watch

The stock market has been one heck of a roller coaster… in the post-Trump inauguration era.

Recently closing near all-time highs.

Is this a great place to put your money? (I’m NOT investing here.)

The correction is coming…

Remember to ask yourself why the richest people in America have cashed out… because they are waiting for a correction (prices will quickly fall… and they will go shopping).

My best crypto source is saying that this is going to be a short-lived run UP on crypto… but, he says, these will have a “serious” market correction in the next 4 to 6 months.

If you time it right, you can make serious money. If you don’t time it right, you can lose a lot…

That same source says XRP seems to be the better crypto for the foreseeable future, if you can jump in AND FORGET IT for the long haul (25 years-ish).

Just an FYI, because nearly all cryptos are NOT BACKED by anything, I have ZERO.

There are a couple that are gold-backed, but why not buy gold instead.

Metals Market Watch

China, Japan, and even the USA are liquidating their T-Bills and buying gold instead.

This hints at the GOVERNMENT’s thinking there is a serious market drop coming… because the only time they do this, is right before a serious economic ‘situation’.

Last Friday, Gold hit a new all-time high.

(I got lucky and HAD TO liquidate a little during the run up… I just happen to sell at the all-time high of gold.)

Other News

Last Tuesday afternoon, the central bank of Canada announced a 0.25% drop in their prime lending rate, matching forecasts.

But it is JUST 3%.

In watching Canadian news, they are VERY skeptical on their economy, and the threats of tariffs are VERY real.

Jerome Powell says the US rates will remain stable (regardless of the domestic and international pressure) to hold rates beyond January.

On Friday last week, the FED issued a statement that is rather peculiar… it sounds like they are giving up on inflation.

Granted, with what the economy is facing, made WORSE by tariffs and the recessions going on in other countries, inflation is assured.

So, I have to ask… why do we even need the FED?

The FED was established in 1913. We survived 150ish years without it.