Geo-Politics
Today is Election Day, and it’s all quiet out there… not much to report as we wait for results, but the outcome could impact the economy significantly:
- Recession Forecasts:
- If Trump wins, my sources suggest the recession could ease.
- If Harris wins, the recession may become severe. We could see a stock market “correction” of at least 15–20%, and possibly as much as 40%, along with escalating layoffs, which have already begun.
- Inflation vs. Deflation: Expect inflation on essential products and deflation on items people want but can’t afford.
- BRICS Challenge: The real root of this recession—and the rapid decline of the U.S.’s global position—is driven hard by the BRICS bloc, which is focused on beating the U.S. through economic means. The election results could slow this, especially if Trump wins.
Stock Market Watch
The stock market has been very slow, with minimal movement in anticipation of the election results. Historically, stocks tend to perform better with a Republican victory.
Metals Market Watch
The metals markets also saw little movement over the past week.
Other News
- Middle East Conflict: Coverage here in the U.S. is limited due to election focus, but key developments include:
- Israel claims to have killed a major Hezbollah figure.
- Netanyahu fired his Defense Minister today, which has people wondering if he’ll bring in a hard-liner or a moderate to replace him.
- Russia Concerns: Russia is accused of planting bombs in cargo planes aimed to explode in American airspace. Not much has been made public, likely due to the election coverage, but if true, this could be very serious.
The Usual Metrics (Layoff Tracker, Bank Health, Debt Clock, Inversion Chart, & CBDCs)
- Boeing Strike Resolution: The strike is over, and most workers should be back by the end of the week—great news for the affected cities, as it impacts 30,000 employees.
- Layoffs Nationwide: Layoff warnings continue to pile up. The national trend is growing rapidly, with South Carolina leading the list, likely due to Hurricane Helene’s aftermath.
- Other Metrics: No changes to my other metrics, other than a few more major layoffs across the country.
What Would I Do About This News? (Not Financial Advice)
Here’s what we’re doing in our house:
- Staying Out of Debt: If you’re buried in debt and want a strategy out, let me know.
- Portfolio Adjustments: We’ve adjusted our retirement funds to be ONLY in real estate and precious metals. Our metals gains over the last year have been enough to pay for half of a house, which will be great when we start taking disbursements in retirement.
- Disaster Prep: We continue to buy silver coins from Micah for disaster barter purposes only. This strategy has proven effective in areas affected by Hurricane Helene.
Micah’s Contact:
Phone: 425-270-7435
Website: FSMetals.us - Cash Reserves: I’m trusting banks and ATMs less these days, especially after stories of hurricane victims going without cash for weeks.
- Modified Dave Ramsey Strategy:
- Focus on paying down the highest interest rate debts first.
- Maintain an emergency fund of $2,000 in cash.
- Build a fund covering 3–6 months of expenses, readily accessible.
- Increase investments in real estate and metals. While metals are more of a wealth-preservation tool, they’ve been undervalued, which has benefited us over the last year.
