Geo-Politics
- Bad guys in Yemen sent a ballistic missile toward Israel.
- The USA retaliated by blowing up a key command center inside Yemen.
- This seems counter to Biden’s ‘hands-off’ policy toward defending Israel.
- Many believe that military action toward Israel will reduce once Trump takes office.
- Rumors continue to abound that Iran is still trying to develop nuclear capabilities. Their targets would be Israel and the USA.
- The USA government is STILL saying that the drones overhead are NOTHING to be concerned about… yeah, right!
- Drones are designed to LOOK AT SOMETHING… what are they looking for?
- Russian officials have suggested they will invest in Bitcoin, sending the crypto to a new all-time high. This is another attempt to kill the USD as a major player in global markets.
- Thailand is joining in on the ‘government ownership of Bitcoin’ craze.
- Many are drawn to crypto despite it being as ‘fiat’ as the dollar (not backed by anything except market emotion).
The Stock Market Watch
- The stock markets are approaching a correction as the FED lowered rates last week by the expected 0.25%.
- Both the Dow and the S&P dropped hard on the day of the announcement.
- The FED alluded to planning only two more rate reductions for 2025, likely 0.25% each.
- Normally, the correction would be sometime in Q1, but the Inversion Chart is not yet indicating when this will happen.
- Metals dropped hard that day, confirming that metals do not always have an inverse correlation to the market.
- The decline may relate to the news that new housing starts are down 14.6% in the last 12 months.
Metals Market Watch
- With the FED lowering rates again, silver immediately dropped 1% and kept declining before climbing back to just under $30 by the weekend.
- During the drop, the Gold to Silver ratio spiked almost to 90, making silver a great buy.
- No one expects gold and silver to stay low, marking this as a buying opportunity.
- Personally, I am not selling but plan on buying more after tax season.
Other News
- The housing market news doesn’t fully show how bad the commercial real estate market is.
- All home sales are down 30-35%, with some banks offering only 1% down on loans to clear bad loans.
- Investors seek answers to Biden’s policies over the last four years, which are believed to have driven the recession.
- It’s likely the correction comes after Trump takes office, shifting blame onto him rather than Biden’s policies.
- Party City and Big Lots! announced going out of business sales, with all employees being laid off shortly.
- Germany’s economy is in serious trouble, nearing a point of no return according to Bloomberg.
- The auto industry in Germany is down 40%, with production moving to low-cost countries, threatening to break the EU.
The Usual Metrics
- The Inversion Chart was flat until the FED reduced rates. When it starts climbing, a correction will be near.
- The layoff tracker reports Providence Medical Group in Washington is laying off 260 people.
- Two more Washington banks are now listed as ‘in trouble,’ bringing the total at risk to nine.
What Would I Do About All This?
Note: This is not financial advice, but here’s what we did in our house:
- We stay out of debt and save up to buy more metals after paying taxes.
- Dave Ramsey’s strategy is a great resource for getting out of debt.
- We used a hybrid of his method, which has helped us handle life’s emergencies.
If you need help with your specific situation, let me know.
