2 December 2024

Here is this week’s update:

Geo-Politics:

• Trump looks to be holding to his promise to add tariffs on numerous products.
• Namely from China and Mexico
• Surprisingly Mexican oil was ON the list
• But what is the impact?
• A recent study was completed and released their results…
• On the short-term, inflation up 1%, unemployment up 0.5%
• On the long-term, MANY more jobs and flat inflation
• With Trump voted in, why are so many STILL risking so much on the ‘recession NOT happening.’
• You cannot fool the numbers… and Trump tariffs will only add to the short-term pain.
• With Israel and Hezbollah agreeing to a ceasefire, many are holding their breath to see if it will hold.
• Israel does not stand for ceasefire violations and will quickly ramp up again if a violation happens.
• Notice, there is no ceasefire with Hamas, continuing the hostage problem.
• Not surprisingly, metals prices are not moving up nor down much, but somewhat holding.
• Found on the Donald J. Trump FaceBook page, “The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER. We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy. They can go find another “sucker!” There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, and any Country that tries should wave goodbye to America.”

The Stock Market Watch:

• Stocks are still at an all-time high… WATCH OUT… the correction is coming.
• All my sources are telling me that the EXPERTS are quietly liquidating (SELLING) a vast majority of their stock positions and holding onto cash, while the general public (mostly 401k funds) are BUYING.
• After the correction, those that cashed out will go shopping for DEEP DISCOUNTS, while the regular public could be RUINED.
• Which are you?
• There is a story of a man that lived next to a jungle and announced he’d pay $10 for each monkey. The villagers jumped at the chance and caught several. As supply diminished, he then said he’d pay $20. More monkeys were caught. When the man announced he’d pay $50 everyone was excited… but he needed to leave to the city, so his assistant took over. As soon as the man left on business, the assistant told the villagers that they could buy the monkeys for $35 and when the man returned, they’d get $50. They jumped at the chance and cashed in their life savings and bought the monkeys. The next day, the assistant was gone, too. Neither he nor the man was ever seen again.
• This is how the stock market works.

Metals Market Watch:

• The “Paper to Silver” ratio is now over 410 to 1.
• This means that for every 410 people that hold a Troy Ounce of silver in an ETF (Exchange Traded Fund), ONLY ONE ounce exists.
• This is due to Massive/global fraud in the ‘derivatives’ market.
• A derivative is a contract to buy later, but at a price agreed upon today.
• And you can buy (derivative) ‘options’ to purchase (or sell) at an agreed price agreed to LATER, but the option holder can opt out in the event the prices go up or down TOO MUCH.
• These derivatives (with or without an option) are what commonly drives the prices for the ENTIRE (current) metals markets, because it ‘reveals’ what (metals) consumers are ‘expecting the price to be at a later date’.
• If there are a lot of ‘contracts’ saying the price will go down, then the TODAY market price will drop.
• So, if you want to BUY PHYSICAL metal today, you first buy a LOT of DERIVATIVES (either as contracts, but likely as options) for 6 months to a year out… but your option is for “a lower price” – knowing full well it is NOT likely … therefore, FOOLING today’s market.
• Since the options are slightly CHEAPER to buy, then buying the options and letting them expire (losing your option purchase price) is OK, because you made up for that, AND MORE by forcing your TODAY purchase price down.

Other News:

• Many of us go shopping on Black Friday. So did Biden… and he bought a book, ‘The Hundred Years’ War on Palestine. This is a blatant anti-Israel book. If you don’t know this yet, he is NOT a friend of Israel. Genesis 12:2-3
• Eric Snowden, who many consider to be the master of pulling back the curtain on global conspiracies, went public a couple years ago with stating that, “The future of crypto is not what it seems.” He cited the lack of privacy… (governmental tracking of your spending).
• Many say that crypto transactions can’t be tracked, but it is likely they will process through our phones, which are fully trackable. And what happens if the grid goes down?
• Likewise, Warren Buffet came out last year and said that he doesn’t invest in crypto because it is not backed (There are a couple that are, but they require the grid to be functioning to buy and sell.)
• And just a week ago, Robert Kiyosaki said the same thing… These guys seem to ‘be in the know’…
• Crypto investing can certainly pay off, but it is very risky.
• The average price of a new car is 47K, while the average price of a used car is 27K. This is the largest difference ever recorded. Of course, the new cars aren’t selling, piling up on dealer lots. This trend should continue for the foreseeable future.

The Usual Metrics (layoff tracker, bank health, debt clock, Inversion chart, & CBDC’s gone LIVE):

• Boeing has informed the federal government that they intend to lay off up to 2500 in WASHINGTON STATE on the 17th of January. This will have huge impact on all of Western Washington. This will also cause an echo, while other companies will see the lost revenue and begin to lay off, too.
• I hope you didn’t put Christmas on your credit card… details below…
• The Inversion Chart (tracks the 10-year T-Bill payout percentage minus the 2-year payout percentage) is still barely above zero… Most believe that this is due to Trump’s election, and it likely is.
• Most common investors are just waiting to see what will happen, but remember, the ultra-rich have already jumped out and are waiting for the crash, so they can jump back in at super-discounts.
• But is it better if it goes up or down?
• If it goes down, the economy will likely hold at the current light-recession level until something more drastic happens, like tariffs going up, or some global war action.
• If it goes up, then the recession is still on track for a stock market correction in the coming months.

What Would I Do About All This?

(This is NOT financial advice, but it is what we did in our house…)

Again, I cannot stress the importance of getting and staying out of debt.

For us, we immediately set aside a small emergency fund of $1000 (likely would be $2000 today) by holding a garage sale and selling stuff we don’t NEED.

We stopped all unnecessary spending and paid off our debt from the highest interest rate to the lower interest rate.

• Premium coffees, eating out (including fast food), energy drinks, etc.
• We sold more stuff.
• Postponed vacations.

Then we saved 3 to 6 months of cash to cover for major expenses or a job loss. Which we have used TWICE!

Then we started to invest wisely, choosing inflation/recession resistant options.

At the time, we were heavy in petroleum producers, namely metals and real estate.

Greatly helped by converting my 401k to a ‘self-directed IRA’.

In less than 10 years retirement looks like we might not have to live in an RV, bouncing from park to park.

We pay cash for cars, major repairs, vacations, etc., from saving… NEVER getting a loan again.

(If this looks familiar, this is a slight variation from the www.daveramsey.com plan.)

We are still buying metals (FOR THE LONG HAUL), with nearly all of our metals vaulted by insured companies. (Most of our metals are in my retirement fund that I cannot legally physically possess. So…)

We use the OneGold app for these funds.

Right now, we like 1/10-ounce gold, as it is smaller denominations and, if you watch the sales, you can buy at VERY low premiums.

Ducats are a variation of these.

The sales during Black Friday week have been INSANE.

We definitely need to save up for next year, but if you can afford it now, watch the sales each and every day until Christmas.

And, with the price of gold and silver somewhat down, so this is a HUGE savings over just a couple weeks ago.

Be sure to ONLY BUY from trusted sources. My local source is Micah Miller at www.fsmetals.us.