Geo-Politics

China’s economy is on the brink of a global catastrophe.

Their debt crisis is being handled by printing money and deeper borrowing… a recipe for failure that the US is also following, but China is farther down the trail.

To make things worse (for China), the Trump tariffs will hinder China’s ability to recover – if they can at all.

China’s 10-year bond yield is now selling for a measly 1.74%... barely scratching the surface of their high inflation.

But no one is buying, forcing their bonds to an even lower price.

It seems that their central bank is the only buyer… which makes matters worse.

If we consider their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per citizen, they have, by far, the worst economy in all of Asia.

How much impact does a single major nation with too much debt have?

Here is how it works (eventually): Over-indebtedness leads to liquidation (of stock markets – everyone selling). Liquidation triggers panic selling. Panic selling crushes (proper) asset values. Deflation kicks in, and debt becomes unbearable.

Russia and the Ukraine are really hurting in their economies, and Trump just might be able to bring a ceasefire using Russian tariffs.

Putin hinted at stopping the purchase of USA goods, but Russia has no backup.

Most of the goods are critical food.

Can Trump keep us from falling down the same rabbit hole? Maybe, but only by postponing our national debt mess.

But, if global markets crash, then the US will have to follow to some degree.

Trump’s First Moves

• A 90-day moratorium on foreign aid
• Considering disasters in LA, the Carolinas, and Florida, this is amazing.
• He called out Bank of America CEO for restricting accounts of conservatives
• Hostages continued to be freed in Israel. Up to 7 of the 33 announced have made it home.
• Trump tried to return a couple of airplanes loaded with Columbian criminals, but they were refused.
• Trump immediately triggered 25% tariffs on Columbia, and they returned with the same.

The Stock Market Watch

The stock market liked Trump. As expected, the ‘correction’ is on hold for now.

The markets can’t seem to figure out what to do.

On some news, there is a temporary dip, and on other news, there is a spike.

I don’t have ANYTHING in the markets, so I don’t have to worry about the volatility.

But if I did, I would try to cash out/liquidate and sit for 6 months… then after the correction, jump back in on an S&P 500 Index fund (VOO is my favorite).

Metals Market Watch

Metals were all over the place, so I encourage others to buy on down days.

Someone asked me how to afford metal. My usual reply is to avoid buying SOMETHING, set the money aside, and then go shopping when you can afford something.

I just bought from Micah at www.fsmetals.us as soon as I collected enough to cover the purchase.

It starts with one. Just buy one at a time.

JUST TODAY, SILVER IS WAY DOWN… if you’ve been holding off, today is a good day to buy.

Silver rounds/coins right now are just over $32. If you get extra cash, buy more.

The Gold-to-Silver ratio is now over 90.

Have you been able to buy any lately?

It should be in the mid-70’s.

With the global economies still buying lots of gold, this just says that silver is undervalued.

This is likely driven by the reduced industrial demand.

Other News

Trump’s promise to sign a record number of Executive Orders came and went.

One of the WORST EVER was his EO to drive the US to deploy its own cryptocurrency. (Translation: a Digital Currency)

And of course, this would only be administered through a ‘government approved’ CBDC.

The outlook on inflation is still not good, regardless of Trump.

The FED’s position will HAVE TO be offset by predictable bank behavior.

For 2025, they will lend less money, through reducing loan approvals AND/OR charging more interest for just about everything.

This will, of course, drive inflation up.

Since metals are a hedge against inflation, this may motivate your metal buying.

The Usual Metrics

• The indicators still seem to be on hold for now (like everything else).
• The announced layoffs from late last year are, however, now coming to fruition.
• Boeing just said goodbye to 500.
• The debt clock continues to climb, now almost 40% to $37T (from $36 to 37 trillion).

What Would I Do About All This?

(This is NOT financial advice, but it is what we did in our house…)

• We got out of debt – and we stay out of debt.
• We have an emergency fund that can cover 3 to 6 months of expenses.
• Every time I come up with extra cash, I like to buy metal.
• I possess a few ounces at home for disaster bartering.
• The rest lives in an insured vault, administered by OneGold.