Geo-Politics
It seems that the USA and Ukraine have reached a partial deal of ‘guns for minerals’.
This cancels the ‘grants’ given by Biden, allowing the USA to get something from it.
Zelensky was in DC late last week and sparred with Trump and Vance over the policies.
He still wants free money.
Trump and Vance insist on ‘doing it our way’.
Citing several sources that the Ukraine military is using ‘conscripts’ – worse than drafting, but more like slave labor.
Both Putin and Zelensky are bad dudes, but ‘partnering’ with Ukraine seems to be the lesser of two evils.
Numerous EU countries are suffering economically, but several voices within them are lobbying HARD for military spending.
The only reason for this is to ensure their protection from other countries… in other words, they want their countries to be prepping for WAR.
Trump suggested these countries to spend 5% of the GDP, up from the current average of only 2%.
With this statement, Trump suggested that those countries that do not spend to bolster their militaries are at risk of losing USA protection.
The Stock Market Watch
The Dow has been on a roller coaster of late, mostly down.
Mainly due to the negative forecast given by Walmart (their view of the next year).
The S&P is not quite so bad.
Eventually, other companies will share bad news, triggering the inevitable correction.
Overall, the Dow is down 5% from its all-time high (ATH) in early December.
The S&P 500 is down about the same, but the ATH was just a few weeks ago.
Metals/Crypto Market Watch
Gold hit an all-time high last Tuesday, at 2952.56, but has dropped since.
The gold-to-silver ratio is over 91 as of this writing (Normal is 75).
Considering reserves of silver and industrial demand, it is much more likely that silver is undervalued.
Many countries can no longer afford gold for their central banks to hold, so they are resorting to buying silver, adding to the demand.
In the meantime, it is a GREAT TIME TO BUY METAL.
Cryptos have been down hard all last week.
This was mainly driven by a couple of wealthy holders of XRP ‘getting out of the market’, flooding it.
My main crypto source says that this should last for another week or two.
It appears that Blackrock and Blackstone are adding fuel to this fire to force the prices DOWN, with a desire to trigger numerous small-time holders (like me) to sell… and then they can buy at a lower price.
Other News
Home sales are down at a whopping 5% over this time last year.
They are at their lowest since they started keeping track in 2001.
Interest rates should fall eventually, so be mindful of an opportunity to refinance to get a lower rate.
Jobless claims have spiked up, more than expected… this is the reality of a downturn.
The Usual Metrics
The Inversion Chart is still hovering between 0.25 and 0.40%.
The Near Term Forward Spread has not inverted yet, but it is very close to crossing over; and when it does, RECESSION.
The Bank of England is rated as a 3 of 5 stars, which means it is at high risk of failure.
The Gross Domestic Product numbers are issued quarterly. The next edition is due in late April to cover the first quarter of 2025.
It is expected to go down.
What Would I Do About All This?
(This is NOT financial advice, but it is what we did in our house…)
We are buying metals (FOR THE LONG HAUL), with nearly all of our metals ‘vaulted’ by insured companies.
(Most of our metals are in my retirement fund that I cannot legally physically possess. So…)
We use the OneGold app for these funds (again, because they are in my ‘self-directed IRA’, and I can’t legally possess the metal).
Be sure to ONLY BUY metal from trusted sources.
My local source is Micah Miller at www.fsmetals.us
If you want his phone number, you can reply to this email, and I’ll send it to you.
