Geo-Politics

All eyes are looking toward Israel and (what’s left of) Hamas. There is a chance of a cease-fire IF hostages are freed.

Hamas published a list of 34 hostages that COULD be released.

(On a very happy note, we have been praying for one hostage in particular – a friend of a friend… Ohad Yahalomi (better known as Faan), and he is ON the list. It is the first release of information that notes that he is alive!!!)

Janet Yellen, in her notes to the next administration, gave a very pessimistic outlook.

NOW it’s pessimistic?

Most of her negativity should be based on the national debt.

This can have a collapse on the Treasury Bills (bond market).

But she also noted that the governments checkbook, the “Treasury General Account” is expected to be empty, YES, EMPTY “by summer”

It takes money to make money, but it also takes money to pay off debt.

And the MAJORITY of our national debt has to be refinanced THIS YEAR, leaving Trump no other choice but to refinance our national debt with higher interest rates… details below.

It is expected that Trump will announce tariffs on his first day.

While this is great for America… oh wait… it may not be what you think.

Tariffs WILL trigger inflation. But how high? No one knows.

Can Americans afford the higher prices? Likely No.

Because of a large volume of T-bill buyer being foreign, these countries may just opt out.

In the final hours of Biden’s administration, the now former president pardoned Dr. Anthony Fauci.

It was assumed he’d be a target of legal action against him.

Sarcasm mode: Good thing only criminals get pardoned

To some degree, our economy is still suffering from the echoes of Fauci’s policies during the COVID debacle.

The Stock Market Watch

Last Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index numbers were released. And the numbers were bad… But they were not as bad as expected, so stocks did not fall.

Energy and food prices showed the largest increase.

However, the dollar decreased in value (market ticker = DXY)

There is a concept called “market concentration”. This charts the volume of stocks (in this case, we are looking at just the S&P 500, because the S&P 500 is the best stock-based indicator of the health of our economy).

This chart is now showing that a vast majority of the GAINS (since the COVID-driven 2022 stock market ‘bottom’) of the S&P 500 stocks are found in ONLY the top 20 stocks. In other words:

• The top 10 stocks on the S&P 500 now make up 59% of the TOTAL S&P 500 value
• The next 10 make up another 11%

Therefore, from a somewhat pessimistic perspective, JUST 20 stocks are keeping the entire S&P 500 afloat.

This may seem benign, as a normal action of stock performance.

But this concentration is nearly identical to the all-time high… which happened right before the Great Depression.

CNBC is talking (publicly) about a global market sell-off of international government bonds (various governments)

The dollar index (DXY) has been going up.

This is NOT due to the strength of the dollar, but the weaknesses of the other currencies compared to the dollar

If the dollar was stronger, then inflation would be lower.

Buy eggs lately? Up nationally about 50%… FIFTY PERCENT.

Considering this, why would anyone want to buy ANY government bond?

Many investors are flipping to crypto and metals, even getting out of the stock market completely.

Metals Market Watch

Silver and gold were reported to drop heavily last week, when in reality, they dipped for a day but then caught right back up.

With the foreseen industrial need for silver, during the next upturn (after the forthcoming stock market correction) silver supply will be critically low, while demand is very high… translation: silver prices are set to go WAY up.

Right now, the gold-to-silver ratio is almost 90, when it should be about 75.

If it were at 75 (and holding the gold price), silver would be almost $36 an ounce.

Even at 80 to 1 silver would cost $33.50.

(It is very unlikely that gold is overpriced due to international demand of governmental purchases to secure their currencies.)

Other News

The national debt, now over 36 1/3 Trillion, needs to have a THIRD of it paid or re-financed this year.

This will trigger increases of interest rates, inflation, and a reduction of the value of the dollar.

Since the government doesn’t have the cash on hand, they have no choice but to pay off this third by refinancing MORE.

Many eyes will be looking for Trump’s leadership through this, but he cannot control what is DUE… he can only control HOW he handles it.

Many are skeptical, to say the least.

(Nearly 100% of my sources are.)

Normally, the payments could easily be made using low interest T-Bills (Treasury bonds), BUT the interest rates are rather high, snowballing the debt even more.

CBDC’s are back in the news with a report of a global consulting ‘resetting’ their (currently slow to failing) CBDC efforts, and they now include A.I. to ‘help ensure they can maximize technology to run a global system.’

Just what we need… A.I. running ALL our financial transactions.

(Their failed system was Project Aurum… you can look that up if you dare/care.)

Target gave a stern warning against earnings.

Considering that they are one of the stronger companies, this is a strong indicator of the challenges yet to come.

The Usual Metrics (layoff tracker, bank health, debt clock, Inversion chart, & CBDC’s gone LIVE)

The labor number were severe this week, confirming that not only people are suffering with inflation, but so are companies.

It is expected that the job losses will increase for the foreseeable future.

Bank health numbers are flat for Washington State.

What Would I Do About All This?

(This is NOT financial advice, but it is what we did in our house…)

We are buying metals (FOR THE LONG HAUL), with nearly all of our metals ‘vaulted’ by insured companies.

(Most of our metals are in my retirement fund that I cannot legally physically possess. So…)

We use the OneGold app for these funds (because they are in my ‘self-directed IRA’, and I can’t legally possess the metal).

https://www.onegold.com/join/b5321228046c464aa

>Be sure to ONLY BUY metal from trusted sources.

My local source is Micah Miller at www.fsmetals.us

If you want his phone number, you can reply to this email, and I’ll send it to you.

Based on lessons learned in California, I would suggest getting an insurance review.

We use Anthony at ProStar, in Washington state.

I have referred 27 people to him.

ALL 27 (100%) came back with a lower price AND commonly for more coverage.

The WORST he’s done was to come up with $200 savings for a single person, newly retired.

For example, just in my house (Mary, Dewan and I – with 4 properties and my retirement real estate fund) we have saved $2200 a year.

Call him at 425-881-2400 and tell him you got the number from me.